The latest numbers are mixed
For August 2026, the California Association of REALTORS reported these median existing detached-house sale prices:
| County | August 2026 median | Change from August 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Orange | $1,452,500 | +4.9% |
| Los Angeles | $946,950 | +1.7% |
| Riverside | $632,990 | +1.3% |
Riverside's median was down 2.5% from July, but up from a year earlier. In a different data set covering all home types and the three months ending August, Redfin showed Murrieta down 2.0% year over year and Fontana nearly unchanged, up 0.09%. Fontana is in San Bernardino County. These measures should not be mixed into one “Southern California prices are falling” headline.
C.A.R. cautions that a median shifts with the mix of homes sold. If fewer large homes close in one month, the median may fall even if comparable homes did not. To judge value, review nearby closed sales, current competing listings, property condition, and seller terms.
A cheaper home can still cost more each month
Freddie Mac reported a 6.95% average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on September 17, 2026. That is a national owner-occupied benchmark, not a quote for an investor loan. Financing, taxes, HOA dues, insurance, and repairs can outweigh a modest list-price reduction. Obtain a written lender estimate for the intended occupancy and loan structure, then compare total cash to close and monthly carrying cost.
When buying now may be rational
An investor has a stronger case when recent comparable sales support the price, a realistic rent covers the chosen return target, reserves remain after closing, and the property still works under a slower resale or a period of vacancy. A buyer with the ability to hold for several years may tolerate ordinary market movement better than someone who expects to resell quickly.
The opportunity is often property-specific. A well-inspected home with a fair price and a seller willing to address a documented roof or insurance issue can be more interesting than a larger advertised discount on a home whose problems are unknown. Keep inspection and financing protections appropriate to the deal.
A better timing question
Ask: If prices stay flat or fall further for two years, can I comfortably own this property? If the answer is yes after a conservative analysis, there is no need to identify the exact market bottom. If the answer is no, a lower asking price alone does not make it time to buy.
Sources and further reading
About Ashar Homes
Real estate guidance from Raveena Ashar · California DRE #01936601 · Rise Realty